Yintoni elandelayo kwimarike yentsimbi?

Amaxabiso entsimbi ase-US ahlala ekwindlela eyandisiweyo yokuhla ukusuka nge-9 Septemba 2022. Ikamva lempahla yorhwebo lityibilikile ukusuka kufutshane ukuya kutsho kwi-1,500 yeedola ekuqaleni konyaka ukurhweba malunga ne-810 yamanqaku ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba - ukwehla okungaphezulu kwe-40% ngonyaka ukuya -umhla (YTD).

Imakethi yehlabathi iye yaba buthathaka ukusukela ngasekupheleni kuka-Matshi njengokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuvalwa kwe-Covid-19 kwiindawo ezithile zase-China kunye nengxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine yonke inyuse imfuno yokungaqiniseki ngo-2022 nango-2023.

I-US Midwest Domestic Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Steel (CRU) eqhubekayoisivumelwano sexesha elizayoyayiphantsi kwe-43.21% ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka, ivale i-812 yokugqibela kwi-8 Septemba.

Amaxabiso e-HRC abetha phezulu kwiinyanga ezininzi phakathi ku-Matshi, njengoko iinkxalabo zokubonelela ngemveliso yentsimbi kunye nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle eRashiya nase-Ukraine zixhasa imarike.

Nangona kunjalo, uvakalelo lwentengiso luye lwaba buhlungu ukusukela oko kwamiselwa ukuvalwa ngokungqongqo eShanghai ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli, okubangela ukuba amaxabiso ehle kwiiveki ezilandelayo.Iziko lezemali laseTshayina ligqibe ngokusesikweni ukuvalwa kwalo iinyanga ezimbini ngomhla woku-1 kuJuni kwaye lasusa eminye imiqobo nge-29 kaJuni.

Ukuchacha koqoqosho lwase-China kuye kwanda kakhulu ngoJulayi, njengoko ukuzithemba kuye kwaphucuka kwaye umsebenzi weshishini ukwinqanaba eliphezulu, ngaphandle kokuqhambuka kwe-Covid okungaqhelekanga kwilizwe lonke.

Ngaba unomdla wokufunda ngakumbi malunga namaxabiso ezinto zentsimbi kunye nembono yawo?Kweli nqaku, siza kujonga iindaba zamva nje ezichaphazela imarike kunye noqikelelo lwexabiso lentsimbi labahlalutyi.

Ukungazinzi kwe-geopolitical kuqhuba ukungaqiniseki kweemarike zentsimbi

Ngo-2021, i-US HRC ixabiso lentsimbi laliphezulu phantse unyaka wonke.Ifike kwirekhodi eliphezulu le-1,725 ​​yeedola kwi-3 Septemba ngaphambi kokuwa kwikota yesine.

Amaxabiso e-US HRC ensimbi aye aguquguquka ukususela ekuqaleni kwe-2022. Ngokutsho kwedatha yexabiso lensimbi ye-CME, inkontileka ka-Agasti ka-2022 yaqala unyaka kwi-1,040 yeetoni ezimfutshane, kwaye yawela phantsi kwe-894 ye-894 kwi-27 kaJanuwari, ngaphambi kokuba ibuyele ngaphezulu kwe-$ 1,010 kwi-25. NgoFebruwari - usuku emva kokuba iRashiya ihlasele iUkraine.

Ixabiso lidibene ne-$ 1,635 ngetoni emfutshane ngo-10 Matshi malunga neenkxalabo malunga nokuphazamiseka kwintsimbi.Kodwa imakethi yajika yaba yi-bearish ukuphendula kutshixo e-China, eye yathoba imfuno evela kumthengi omkhulu wentsimbi emhlabeni.

us-steel-index

Kumbono wayo omfutshane (SRO) wowama-2022 nowama-2023, iWorld Steel Association (WSA), iqumrhu eliphambili kushishino, yathi:

"Ihlabathi lonke eliphuma kwimfazwe yase-Ukraine, kunye nokukhula okuphantsi kwe-China, kukhomba ekunciphiseni okulindelweyo kokukhula kwemfuno yentsimbi yehlabathi ngo-2022.
“Kukho imingcipheko eyongezelelekileyo evela kuqhaqho oluqhubekayo losulelo lwentsholongwane kwezinye iindawo zehlabathi, ngakumbi i-China, kunye nokunyuka kwamazinga enzala.Ukuqiniswa okulindelekileyo kwemigaqo-nkqubo yezemali yase-US kuya kwenzakalisa uqoqosho olusakhulayo olusesichengeni. "

Kwiqhekeza kwicandelo lolwakhiwo lwe-EU ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba, umhlalutyi we-ING uMaurice van Sante ugxininise ukuba ulindelo lwemfuno ephantsi kwihlabathi jikelele - hayi eTshayina kuphela - bebeka uxinzelelo olusezantsi kwixabiso lentsimbi:

"Ukusukela oko kwaqhambuka ubhubhane ngo-2020, izinto ezininzi zokwakha zonyukile kwixabiso. Nangona kunjalo, amanye amaxabiso azinzile okanye ade ehla kancinci kwezi nyanga zimbalwa zidlulileyo. Amaxabiso entsimbi, ngakumbi, ehlile kancinci ukulindela imfuno yentsimbi ephantsi njengoko uqikelelo lophuhliso lwezoqoqosho kumazwe amaninzi luthotywa.

Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-14-2022