Yintoni elandelayo kwimarike yentsimbi?

Amaxabiso entsimbi aseMelika asaqhubeka ehla kakhulu ukusukela nge-9 kaSeptemba 2022. Ikamva lemveliso liye lehla ukusuka kwi-$1,500 ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kurhwebo olujikeleze uphawu lwe-$810 ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba - ukwehla okungaphezulu kwama-40% kunyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku (YTD).

Imakethi yehlabathi iye yaba buthathaka ukusukela ekupheleni kukaMatshi njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuvalwa kwe-Covid-19 kwiindawo zaseTshayina kunye nengxabano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine zonke ziye zandisa ukungaqiniseki kwembono yemfuno ngo-2022 nango-2023.

I-US Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Steel (CRU) eqhubekayoisivumelwano sexesha elizayoIxabiso layo lehle ngama-43.21% ukusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, emva kokuba ivalwe okokugqibela kwi-$812 ngomhla wesi-8 kuSeptemba.

Amaxabiso e-HRC afikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwiinyanga ezininzi phakathi kuMatshi, njengoko iinkxalabo zokubonelela ngemveliso yentsimbi kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eRashiya nase-Ukraine zixhase imakethi.

Nangona kunjalo, iimvakalelo zemarike ziye zancipha ukusukela oko kwamiselwa ukuvalwa okungqongqo eShanghai ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli, nto leyo ebangele ukuba amaxabiso ehle kwiiveki ezilandelayo. Iziko lezemali laseTshayina ligqibe ngokusesikweni ukuvalwa kwalo kweenyanga ezimbini ngomhla woku-1 kuJuni kwaye lasusa eminye imiqathango ngomhla wama-29 kuJuni.

Ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kwezoqoqosho eTshayina kukhule ngoJulayi, njengoko ukuzithemba kuye kwaphucuka kwaye imisebenzi yeshishini isanda, nangona ubhubhane weCovid uqhubeka rhoqo kulo lonke ilizwe.

Ngaba unomdla wokufunda okungakumbi ngamaxabiso eemveliso zentsimbi kunye nendlela ezibonakala ngayo? Kweli nqaku, siza kujonga iindaba zamva nje ezichaphazela imakethi kunye nezibikezelo zamaxabiso entsimbi zabahlalutyi.

Ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko kuqhuba ukungaqiniseki kwimarike yentsimbi

Ngowama-2021, ixabiso lentsimbi ye-US HRC lanyuka phantse unyaka wonke. Lafikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu le-$1,725 ngomhla wesi-3 kuSeptemba ngaphambi kokuba liwe kwikota yesine.

Amaxabiso entsimbi ye-US HRC ebengaguquguquki ukusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2022. Ngokwedatha yexabiso lentsimbi ye-CME, isivumelwano sika-Agasti 2022 saqala unyaka kwi-$1,040 ngetoni nganye emfutshane, saza sehla saya kutsho kwi-$894 ngomhla wama-27 kuJanuwari, ngaphambi kokuba sibuyele kwi-$1,010 ngomhla wama-25 kuFebruwari - usuku emva kokuba iRashiya ihlasele i-Ukraine.

Ixabiso lenyuke laya kwi-$1,635 ngetoni nganye emfutshane ngomhla we-10 kweyoKwindla ngenxa yenkxalabo malunga nokuphazamiseka kokunikezelwa kwentsimbi. Kodwa imakethi itshintshe yaba yintlekele ngenxa yokuvalwa kwezindlu eTshayina, okuye kwanciphisa imfuno evela kubathengi bentsimbi abaninzi emhlabeni.

Kwi-Short Range Outlook yayo (i-SRO) ka-2022 no-2023, iWorld Steel Association (i-WSA), umbutho ophambili kushishino, uthe:

“Ukusasazeka kwemfazwe e-Ukraine kwihlabathi liphela, kunye nokukhula okuphantsi e-China, kubonisa ukwehla kolindelo lokukhula kwemfuno yentsimbi yehlabathi ngo-2022.”

"Kukho ezinye iingozi ezibangelwa kukwanda okuqhubekayo kosulelo lweentsholongwane kwezinye iindawo zehlabathi, ingakumbi iTshayina, kunye nokunyuka kwamazinga enzala. Ukuqina okulindelekileyo kwemigaqo-nkqubo yemali yaseMelika kuya kuphazamisa uqoqosho olusakhulayo olusengozini yezemali."

Kwinqaku elimalunga necandelo lokwakha le-EU ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba, umhlalutyi we-ING uMaurice van Sante ugxininise ukuba ulindelo lokuncipha kwemfuno kwihlabathi liphela - kungekuphela nje eTshayina - belubeka uxinzelelo oluphantsi kwixabiso lesinyithi:

"Ukususela oko kwaqhambuka ubhubhane ngo-2020, izinto zokwakha ezininzi zinyukile ngexabiso. Nangona kunjalo, amanye ala maxabiso azinze okanye ade ehla kancinci kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo. Amaxabiso entsimbi, ngakumbi, ehlile kancinci ngenxa yokulindela imfuno yentsimbi ephantsi njengoko uqikelelo lophuhliso loqoqosho kumazwe amaninzi luncitshiswa."

Ixesha lokuthumela: Septemba-14-2022